Batting Average Doesn't Matter: How WAR is Changing the Game

For decades, batting average was king. It was the number plastered on scoreboards, the stat that crowned legends, the figure that fans and analysts swore by. A higher batting average meant a better hitter—and so, we thought.

But in recent years, batting average has been losing its grip on baseball. A new era of analytics has taken over, revolutionizing the way we evaluate players. Suddenly, the game’s most iconic number doesn’t seem quite as important as it once was.

The Rise and Fall of Batting Average

For over a century, batting average reigned supreme as the go-to hitting stat. It’s simple: divide a player’s hits by their at-bats. A .300 batting average meant a hitter got a hit 30% of the time—easy to understand and compare.

Legendary players like Ty Cobb (.366 career average) and Ted Williams (the last player to hit .400 in 1941) reinforced the belief that batting average was the gold standard. Even in the late 90s and 2000s, hitters like Tony Gwynn and Ichiro Suzuki were revered for their elite averages, cementing the stat’s significance in the baseball world.

However, there was a growing problem: batting average fails to tell the whole story. It treats singles the same as home runs, disregards walks, and most importantly, it overlooks all the other ways a player contributes to winning baseball games—like defense, baserunning, and plate discipline. As the game became more advanced, analysts realized that there was a deeper level of player evaluation that needed to be addressed.

Enter WAR: The Stat That Changed the Game

As baseball evolved, analysts began looking for a better way to measure a player’s value. This led to the creation of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and its Fangraphs-specific counterpart, fWAR. These new metrics were born out of the need to assess players not just by their traditional stats, but by their overall contribution to the team’s success.

So, what exactly is WAR? It’s a single number that estimates how many wins a player adds to their team compared to a replacement-level player—someone who might be a minor leaguer or an average bench player. WAR is a comprehensive measure that accounts for a player’s offense, defense, and baserunning, offering a more holistic view of their impact on the game.

The scale is intuitive:

• 0 WAR = Replacement-level player
• 2-3 WAR = Average MLB starter
• 4-5 WAR = All-Star
• 6+ WAR = MVP-caliber

Unlike batting average, WAR takes into account power hitting, walks, park effects, and defensive contributions. Suddenly, players who might not have elite batting averages but contribute in multiple facets of the game were receiving the recognition they deserved.

Juan Soto: A WAR Machine

One of the best examples of WAR’s superiority is Juan Soto. In 2023, Soto’s batting average was a solid but unspectacular .275. By traditional standards, that’s not MVP-level. And yet, Soto posted an impressive 6.1 WAR—one of the best in baseball that season.

Why is this? Because WAR takes into account what makes Soto truly elite: his exceptional ability to get on base with a .400+ OBP, his power hitting, and his overall offensive prowess. Even though his defense is only average, his offensive value is so great that it compensates for his defensive shortcomings, allowing him to still rank among the best players in the league.

In fact, despite below-average stats in defense and baserunning in 2024, Soto still ranked 6th overall in WAR, proving that WAR captures value in ways that traditional metrics, like batting average, never could.

Shohei Ohtani: The Ultimate WAR Wonder

And then there’s Shohei Ohtani, a generational talent who breaks every rule in baseball analysis. In 2023, Ohtani posted an eye-popping 10.1 WAR—4.0 from his hitting and 6.0 from his pitching. Even in 2024, after an injury sidelined him as a pitcher, he still delivered a staggering 9.1 WAR from the plate alone.

Ohtani’s impact goes far beyond his batting average. He is an offensive juggernaut and a former Cy Young-level pitcher, all rolled into one. WAR helps quantify just how absurdly valuable he is in ways that traditional stats, like batting average, simply cannot capture. Without WAR, it's hard to fully understand the scale of Ohtani's dominance in the game.

The Future of Baseball Stats

Is batting average entirely useless? Not at all. It still has its place in the game and can provide a quick snapshot of a player’s hitting ability. For casual fans or quick comparisons, it serves a purpose. But as the game continues to evolve, it’s clear that more advanced statistics like WAR offer a far more nuanced understanding of a player’s true value.

Baseball has always been a game of numbers, and with the rise of analytics, we’re moving beyond the simple statistics of the past. As technology advances and our understanding of the sport deepens, who knows? One day, an even better stat may come along to eclipse WAR, just as WAR has surpassed batting average.

Until then, the shift from batting average to WAR marks a new era in baseball—a time when players are rewarded not just for how often they get a hit, but for everything they bring to the game.