Amazin' Daily Briefing: January 30th, 2025

Bold Prediction for Jeff McNeil in 2025: A Mid-Season Trade to Bolster the Mets' World Series Run

As we continue our series on Bold Predictions for the New York Mets’ roster, we turn our attention to Jeff McNeil, the versatile infielder/outfielder whose 2024 season was marked by an uncharacteristic decline. Once a cornerstone of the Mets’ lineup, McNeil struggled to produce at his usual levels, raising questions about his future with the team. However, with the Mets expected to be in playoff contention, his role on the roster is far from certain.

Breaking Down McNeil’s 2024 Season

McNeil’s 2024 offensive production saw a sharp decline compared to his previous standards. His .238/.308/.384 slash line over 472 plate appearances reflected a career-low batting average and a noticeable dip in his on-base percentage. His overall performance yielded 57 runs, 101 hits, 12 home runs, and 5 stolen bases, resulting in a .692 OPS—well below his career norms.

A deeper dive into advanced metrics from Baseball Savant paints a clearer picture of McNeil’s struggles:

• xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average): 16th percentile
• xBA (Expected Batting Average): 27th percentile
• xSLG (Expected Slugging Percentage): 10th percentile
• Average Exit Velocity: 14th percentile (87.0 mph)
• Barrel %: 6th percentile
• Hard-Hit %: 11th percentile
• Launch Angle Sweet-Spot %: 28th percentile
• Bat Speed: 13th percentile
• Whiff %: 87th percentile (highlighting his ability to make contact)
• K % (Strikeout Rate): 92nd percentile (showcasing his low strikeout tendency)
• BB % (Walk Rate): 42nd percentile

Defensively, McNeil’s versatility remained an asset, with his range ranking in the 63rd percentile and arm strength in the 65th percentile. However, his speed dropped to the 23rd percentile, a factor that, while not central to his game, indicates a potential decline in mobility.

The Criticism Over McNeil's Golfing

In addition to his struggles on the field, McNeil faced public criticism for his recent focus on golfing during the off-season. Some fans and analysts raised eyebrows over his commitment to the sport, wondering if his time spent on the links could be contributing to his decline in performance. While McNeil defended his extracurricular activity, noting that he remained fully dedicated to his training, the criticism highlighted concerns over his focus and whether his off-field interests were detracting from his on-field responsibilities.

Prediction: A Resurgence and a Trade in 2025

Despite a disappointing 2024, McNeil possesses the skillset to rebound in 2025. According to Steamer’s 2025 projections, McNeil is expected to play 138 games with 556 plate appearances, achieving a .271 batting average, .331 on-base percentage, and .395 slugging percentage. He is projected to hit 11 home runs, score 60 runs, and accumulate 60 RBIs, along with 6 stolen bases. His wRC+ is anticipated to be 108, with an OPS of .726 and a WAR of 1.9.

However, with younger players capable of matching his production, the Mets may look to trade McNeil at the deadline.

Why a Trade Makes Sense

The emergence of Luisangel Acuña, a dynamic young prospect, is set to reshape the Mets’ infield. Acuña’s speed (85th percentile), defensive instincts, and offensive upside make him an ideal candidate to take over second base. With Acuña ready for a full-time role, McNeil becomes expendable, making a midseason trade highly plausible.

McNeil remains a valuable asset, particularly for a contender looking for a contact hitter with defensive flexibility. Even in a down year, his high contact rate (87th percentile Whiff %) and low strikeout rate (92nd percentile K %) make him an appealing option. Given the Mets’ need to bolster their starting rotation for a deep playoff run, McNeil could be part of a package deal to acquire an impact pitcher.

From a financial standpoint, McNeil’s contract remains manageable, making him an attractive trade piece. If the Mets choose to strengthen their pitching staff for a postseason push, moving McNeil could allow them to acquire a starter who solidifies their rotation while clearing room for younger talent.

Impact on the Mets’ Roster

Trading McNeil would signal a strategic shift toward a younger, more dynamic core, headlined by Acuña at second base. Acuña’s athleticism and offensive potential add a new dimension to the lineup, complementing the Mets’ evolving infield strategy.

Final Thoughts

Jeff McNeil’s 2025 season could mark the end of his tenure with the Mets, but not before a resurgence that boosts his trade value. For the Mets, moving McNeil would be a calculated risk—one that strengthens their roster for the postseason while ensuring a smooth transition for the next generation. As the trade deadline approaches, all eyes will be on McNeil’s performance, the Mets’ playoff positioning, and the market for his skill set.

If this bold prediction holds, McNeil’s journey with the Mets could take a dramatic turn, ultimately benefiting both him and the organization as they push for a deep October run.

Trivia Question of The Day:

Jose Reyes holds the record for most stolen bases in Mets history with 408. Who ranks second on the list?

Leave a comment with your answer and subscribe. The answer will be posted in tomorrow's Amazin' Daily Briefing!

On This Day in Mets History

Born on this date:

• Charlie Neal (1931)
• Davey Johnson (1943)
• Nick Evans (1986)
• Eddy Alvarez (1990)
• Kodai Senga (1993)
• Ariel Jurado (1996)

Died on this date:

• Jeff Innis (2022)

Transactions:

• January 30, 1962 – New York Mets signed free agent Joe Ginsberg.
• January 30, 1984 – New York Mets released Dave Kingman.
• January 30, 2002 – New York Mets signed free agent John Valentin.
• January 30, 2007 – Toronto Blue Jays signed Victor Zambrano of the New York Mets as a free agent.
• January 30, 2007 – New York Mets signed free agent Robinson Cancel.
• January 30, 2013 – New York Mets signed free agent Shaun Marcum of the Milwaukee Brewers.
• January 30, 2021 – New York Mets signed free agent Aaron Loup of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Random Player Spotlight

Darren Bragg

Born: September 7, 1969 Waterbury, Conn.

First Mets game: May 16, 2001
Last Mets game: June 3, 2001

18 Games. 4 Runs, 5 RBIs, 0 HR, 3 SB, .263 avg.

Also played for:

• Seattle Mariners 1994 - 1996
• Boston Red Sox 1996 - 1998
• St. Louis Cardinals 1999
• Colorado Rockies 2000
• New York Yankees 2001
• Atlanta Braves 2002, 2003;
• San Diego Padres 2004
• Cincinnati Reds 2004

Signed with New York Mets as a free agent on January 9, 2001.
Claimed by New York Yankees on waivers on June 12, 2001.

January 29th Trivia Answer

The first home run in World Series history for the New York Mets was hit by Donn Clendenon in Game 2 of the 1969 World Series against the Baltimore Orioles.

Clendenon played in all five games of the series, hitting .357 with 2 home runs, 3 RBIs, and 2 runs scored. His offensive output was a major boost to the Mets' lineup, and he was named World Series MVP for his efforts.

Leave a comment with your answer and subscribe. The answer will be posted in tomorrow's Amazin' Daily Briefing!